so that doesn't seem like anything that israel would want to do. so at this point, where do you place the odds of there actually being a conflict? >> pretty high. firstly, the egyptian president decided that he wasn't going to -- he was going to go and support hamas. on the other hand, the egyptian army has sent forces to the gaza border, putting a blockade in position, and seems to have been carrying out operations against islamists in sinai. so that tells us that the army is a lot more powerful than the president, and also is kaumg. as for ir -- calming. iran has a long way away, having problems in iraq with its financial situation what it is. they're not worried about this. this is going to be israel and hamas and that's tough enough. >> so the f the odds are pretty high in your view, is a disruption to oil supplies, is that pretty much a foregone conclusion? >> only if the trade rers as rational as they usually are. this is not going to be spreading through the region. it should not cause any disruption to oil supplies, but they like to get exc